An ‘AI Bubble’? What Altman Actually said, the Facts and Nano Banana

Wait, why did Sam Altman say AI was in a bubble? Or did he? Is it? 8 points for you to consider, before we all get distracted by Nano Banana.

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:14 - Sam Altman Clarification
02:30 - Media Calls a Bubble (for the tenth time)
03:40 - MIT and McKinsey Analysed
08:21 - Incremental Progress Deceptive
12:07 - Reasoning Breakthroughs
15:31 - CEOs might not know their products
17:25 - But did stocks go down?
17:31 - Media is Contradictory of course


https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/gaza-crisis-appeal


Bubble about to burst: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/20/ai-report-triggering-panic-and-fear-on-wall-street/

Nano Banana: https://blog.google/products/gemini/updated-image-editing-model/
https://ai.studio/banana

McKinsey Report: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/seizing-the-agentic-ai-advantage#/
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai#/
Revenue: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mckinsey-consulting-firms-ai-strategy-89fbf1be

MIT Report: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf

Safe Superintelligence: https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/12/openai-co-founder-ilya-sutskevers-safe-superintelligence-reportedly-valued-at-32b/

Thinking Machines Lab: https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/15/mira-muratis-thinking-machines-lab-is-worth-12b-in-seed-round/

WSJ Prediction 2024: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-revolution-is-already-losing-steam-a93478b1
WP Prediction 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/08/05/ai-hype-bubble-chatgpt/
2025 Reality: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-hits-12-billion-annualized-revenue-breaks-700-million-chatgpt-weekly-active-users?rc=sy0ihq
AI Website: https://aislowdown.replit.app/?s=09

Companies are Pouring Billions into AI: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/business/ai-business-payoff-lags.html

Consumer Surplus: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ais-overlooked-97-billion-contribution-to-the-economy-users-service-da6e8f55
Figure AI robot: https://x.com/adcock_brett/status/1958193476639826383

GDP Bet: https://x.com/adamdangelo/status/1627726566259318784?lang=en

Genie 3 Immersion: https://x.com/holynski_/status/1953879983535141043

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953861448431718662
htttps://simple-bench.com
MMMU: https://mmmu-benchmark.github.io/#leaderboard
Prophet Arena: https://www.prophetarena.co/leaderboard

NYT Jobs: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/opinion/ai-job-loss-deindustrialization.html

Dawn of Reasoning?: https://openreview.net/pdf?id=FkKBxp0FhR
vs :https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.04121

ARC-AGI: https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/1/
https://x.com/fchollet/status/1870169764762710376?lang=en-GB

Turing Test: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.23674

Mathematics of Starvation: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/31/the-mathematics-of-starvation-how-israel-caused-a-famine-in-gaza
https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/gaza-crisis-appeal

https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

METR Interview: https://www.patreon.com/c/aiexplained/posts

AlphaEvolve: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/
Paper: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/AlphaEvolve.pdf

Amodei: https://kantrowitz.medium.com/the-making-of-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-449777529dd6
https://www.theloganbartlettshow.com/archive/ep-82-dario-amodeis-ai-predictions-through-2030#:~:text=DARIO%3A%20I%20think%20our%20concern,being%20responsible%20to%20accelerate%20things
Unreleased OpenAI: https://x.com/alexwei_/status/1954966393419599962

VLMs Tricked: https://x.com/an_vo12/status/1943715159559545186



AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained



Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/

Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/